Follow me on Twitter @PaleEhleI logged onto my computer Monday morning following the Broncos' narrow win over the Chargers, very curious to see what Vegas had to say about the upcoming AFC title game. What I saw shocked me: the Patriots were +5.5 underdogs to the Broncos. Not a pick 'em, not a measly +1 or +2 that can be written off by Denver's home field advantage, but 5.5 points. A moneyline of +205. Vegas, you mean to tell me that you really think the Broncos are twice as lucky to win on Sunday as the Patriots? Either you're really confident that the world is buying right into all the hype around the Broncos to tilt the action in your favor, or you need to review some relevant history.
Peyton Manning is not a good playoff quarterback. He may be the best regular-season QB of all time, but, when the going gets tough and the pressure is turned up in the postseason, he crumbles. Let's look at how Manning's playoff teams have done since his first appearance in1999:
1999: 13-3, #2 seed in AFC, Lost first playoff game to Titans
2000: 10-6, wildcard berth, Lost first playoff game to Dolphins
2002: 10-6, wildcard berth, Lost first playoff game to Jets (41-0, ouch!)
2003: 12-4, wildcard berth, won 2 playoff games, then Lost AFC Championship game to Patriots
2004: 12-4, #3 seed, won 1 playoff game, Lost in divisional round to Patriots
2005: 14-2, #1 seed, Lost first playoff game to Steelers
2006: 12-4, won Super Bowl v.s. Bears
2007: 13-3, #1 seed, Lost first playoff game to Chargers
2008: 12-4, wildcard berth, Lost first playoff game to Chargers
2009: 14-2, #1 seed, Lost Super Bowl to Saints
2010: 10-6, division champions, Lost first playoff game to Jets
2012: 13-3, #1 seed. Lost first playoff playoff game to Ravens
That's eight one-and-dones, six of which totally squandered 14-2, 13-3, or 12-4 seasons. He's shown that he's not a good cold-weather quarterback, especially in the postseason, and it will surely be cold in Mile High on Sunday. Peyton is far from unbeatable in the postseason.
On the other sideline, Bill Belichick knows how to stop Peyton better than anyone. Peyton is 4-10 against him all time, and only has one win against him in the playoffs, an 18-point comeback in the 2006 AFC Championship game which I think is easily his finest hour in the postseason.
Belichick has a talent for getting the most out of his players that is unparalleled, and that has been the deciding factor in his postseason meetings with Peyton. Whether he has the defensive talent of the Patriots' runs in the early 2000s or an injured, depleted squad like in recent years, he always managed to get the right scheme for the right personnel to get the job done on defense. Players (and coaches, for that matter) in the Belichick system thrive during their time there; however, their success rarely continues once they leave New England. That's because Belichick utilizes their particular skills sets to their fullest in the way that no one else can.
Apart from the expert coaching, Tom Brady may have placed together a season even finer than the 2007 16-0 campaign. Much like his coach, Brady was given little talent to work with on in his receiving corps. With Aaron Hernandez in jail, Gronk and Amendola injured, and Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead gone to other teams, he was forced to rely on raw and unproven WRs such as Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. While his frustration was evident early in the season as his receivers failed to understand the plays and ran the wrong routes, Brady refused to settle for less and worked with his team until they could get he job done. To augment the effort, Brady worked with Julian Edelman (who was playing fill-in cornerback two years ago today in the AFC title game against the Ravens) until he became his new Wes Welker, his go-to receiver and security blanket.
While the Broncos have lived and died by the passing attack all season (except when Jack Del Rio introduced a more balanced attack while he was interim coach), the Patriots have shown they can beat you in multiple ways. Last week's six rushing TD and zero passing TD performance shows you all you need to know. The Patriots are on fire and peaking at the right time; the Broncos nearly blew a 24-0 lead against a far inferior opponent. The Patriots know all about the Broncos blowing 24-0 leads, and they will take advantage of every weakness that Denver shows today.
On top of it all, the pedigree of the Pats was given a slap in the face by Vegas this week with an inflated +5.5 line. I don't know how you can consider the Pats underdogs with their proven postseason success, especially against Peyton Manning. I expect the Pats to come out strong early and then stiffle a late comeback attempt.
The final playoff matchup between Peyton and Brady will leave Brady the victor once again. The Patriots are Super Bowl bound.
Prediction:
Patriots 27
Broncos 24
No comments:
Post a Comment