By Dylan Ehle (@PaleEhle on Twitter)
Here are my Week 11 picks! You can also check them out at ehlehouse.blogspot.com, along with my week 10 power poll, a new episode of The Ehle House, and articles from our other contributors on the week.
Week 10 was rough, as I went a meager 7-6-1 and allowed Tex to gain a 4-game lead on me this season. Hopefully I can gain some ground this week....
Dolphins at Bills: BILLS. I started the week off strong by picking the Bills on Thursday night. I honestly thought they'd win by 10-17 points, and they would have if they were able to turn a few of their four red zone possessions into touchdowns instead of field goals.
Cardinals at Falcons: FALCONS. They're very overrated, but they should roll this week against a Cardinals team that is spiraling out of control.
Bucs at Panthers: PANTHERS. I've been saying for weeks that the Panthers will have a winning streak before the end of the year, and it starts this week by cooling off the hot Bucs.
Browns at Cowboys: COWBOYS. They will continue to claw their way back into the playoff hunt by taking care of business at home against an underrated Browns team.
Packers at Lions: PACKERS. If the Lions can't beat the Vikings on the road, they can't beat the Pack at home. Rodgers will light up that shoddy secondary and put an end to the Lions' last-ditch playoff hopes.
LOCK: Jaguars at Texans: TEXANS. I hate to lock the obvious game with the 16-point spread, but, being a Jags fan, I know that they have absolutely no chance to win this game. I don't think I'll be able to watch this at all even thought I paid for NFL Sunday Ticket just to watch the Jags this year.
Bengals at Chiefs: BENGALS. Yeah, I know the Chiefs almost beat Pitt on MNF, but I don't see them being competitive with a Bengals team that just destroyed the defending champs and is looking to make a playoff push in a weak AFC.
Jets at Rams: RAMS. I thought about taking the Jets as my upset here....then I remembered that Mark Sanchez is their quarterback.
Eagles at Redskins: REDSKINS. RG3 will take divisional success against the rookie-led Eagles. They should win by double digits.
Saints at Raiders: SAINTS. The Saints are on a roll, and I don't see it stopping anytime soon now that their defense has stepped up a bit. Even if the Raiders put up 28-31 on the defense, I don't see the Saints losing.
Chargers at Broncos: BRONCOS. Peyton will make it a sweep of the Chargers and they will pretty much lock up the division with a win here on Sunday.
Colts at Patriots: PATRIOTS. I'm really looking forward to the Brady-Luck showdown in this game, but the Colts are due for a loss, and this is the point in the year where the Pats generally stop messing around and hit their stride.
UPSET: Ravens at Steelers: STEELERS. I'm taking the Steelers here for a few reasons: 1) The Ravens are more banged up than people think, and that beatdown of the Raiders told us nothing because....well, they're the Raiders. 2) I don't like any of the other upset options this week (the spread is too close on the Panthers) 3) The Steelers are underdogs at home, and you don't have a chance to take them as an upset at home too often. 4) Byron Leftwich isn't as bad as you think. Yeah, he takes a while to wind up, and his throwing motion is pretty hideous, and he did lose a lot of games for the Jags back in the day since he couldn't do anything on offense while our defense was a top-5 unit, but.....ah, screw it, he's not a good quarterback.
WASH: Bears at 49ers: 49ERS. This is the second week in a row that I've washed the Bears in prime time, but I'm even more confused as to who to pick than I was last week. Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks due to concussions, and both backups are facing great defenses. I think the 9ers have the edge since they are at home, but this is definitely my wash.
Last week: 7-6-1
Season record: 86-60-1
Points: 23
Byron Leftwich winds up to throw a screen pass
(Jason Bridge-US PRESSWIRE)
AMENDMENT 11/19: I'm switching to the Bears as my MNF pick, but it is still my wash for the week.
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